Colts (6-4) @ Texans (6-4)
Preview:
This division matchup is crucial to each team’s chances of winning the AFC South. The Texans are coming off of a blowout loss to the Ravens and desperately need to right the ship. The Colts are coming off of an easy win against the Jaguars however have multiple key players banged up. With the Colts taking the first game between these two teams back in October in Indy, the Texans must put forth a better effort than they did last week if they are to stay neck and neck with their rival.
Injury Report:
- All eyes will be on the injury report for Indianapolis as T.Y. Hilton has a chance to play for the first time since injuring his calf three weeks earlier. Hilton will provide a huge boost for Jacoby Brissett as Indy is very shallow at receiver. Hilton also feasts against Houston putting up 6 receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown in their last matchup. In 15 career games against Houston, Hilton has accumulated 82 Receptions for 1,519 yards and 10 touchdowns. This would divide out to just over 100 yards per game and the equivalent of an all-pro season. This season, Houston ranks 25th against the pass by DVOA.
- Indy also faces the loss of bell cow Marlon Mack who will be sidelined for the immediate future with a fractured hand. The Colts will now turn to the running back committee of Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams, and Nyheim Hines. Hines will most likely continue with his role of third-down and change of pace back leaving Wilkins and Williams to battle for early down work. Williams dominated in Mack’s absence last week totaling 116 rushing yards on 13 carries. It is yet to be seen if Williams will continue to be the lead back or if Wilkins makes a meaningful dent in this backfield timeshare. Wilkins is coming off an ankle injury however does not carry and injury designation for this game.
- Houston is now preparing for their second game without J.J. Watt. Without Watt last week, the Texans allowed 41 points and 263 rushing yards.
- Will Fuller looks to be a game time decision for the Texans after missing his last three games. Fuller would be key to help stretch the field as Houston’s primary deep threat.
- The Texans secondary is all sorts of injured especially after Aaron Wilson left the Ravens game on crutches with a foot injury. Additionally, starting safeties Justin Reid and Mike Adams are both dealing with concussions that make their availability for Thursday still very much up in the air.
- Key Matchups:
- Will the Colts be able to run without Mack? Houston is currently 10th against the run by DVOA making this a difficult matchup on paper for the Colts. Indy had been the seventh best rush offense however how much of that was due to the success of Mack is yet to be determined. The Colts offensive line will look to be dominant against a Watt-less Texans team. It will not matter who is running the ball if the Colts beat the Texans up front as badly as the Ravens did last week.
- Will Houston be able to stop the bleeding in their secondary? With most of their starters sidelined the Texans have made moves to bring in former first rounders Gareon Conley and Vernon Hargreaves III. Hargreaves was a waiver claim after being released by Tampa Bay. Tampa is currently 32nd against the pass so if they could not find a use for Hargreaves, it is unlikely he will be of much use to Houston. This could be an even bigger problem if Hilton plays.
- How will coaching impact the game? Frank Reich has done a phenomenal job with this Colts offense and should keep play calls creative in order to get the most out of Jacoby Brissett. Against a reeling Texans defense, Reich should have plenty of options to move the ball. Texans coach Bill O’Brien has been much more predictable; leaning on the run despite having superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson and superstar wide receiver Deandre Hopkins. Indy however has struggled against the run this year, ranking 23rd by DVOA, making this a good matchup for a run game centered around Carlos Hyde. Still, O’Brien will have to do more than pound the rock with Hyde if the Texans are to put up enough points in this game.
Verdict:
This should be a closely contested game. Injuries are the main storyline and the team that does the best job taking advantage of the other’s backups will most likely come away the winner. If Hilton plays and it looks like he is trending toward suiting up, the Colts should have no trouble scoring against this J.J. Watt-less defense. The Texans will need to run the ball efficiently and find some big plays from Watson in order to win at home and keep pace in the division. Last time these two played 53 total points were scored and I see another high scoring affair. Thursday night however seems to bring out the worst in teams, so a sloppy game is always in the realm of possibility.
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 45.5
Pick: Colts +3.5 and Over 45.5
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